Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If INTC hits $65 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$396 (7.5%) on $-396 credit (max loss $5,304), vs +$262 (4.2%) for 100 shares on $6,238. Options give 1.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if INTC is at $65. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| INTC Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $50 (-20%) | -$574 | -$494 | -$398 | -$314 |
| $53 (-15%) | -$392 | -$299 | -$179 | -$2 |
| $56 (-10%) | -$238 | -$136 | -$1 | +$310 |
| $59 (-5%) | -$108 | -$3 | +$133 | +$396 |
| $61 (-2%) | -$41 | +$62 | +$195 | +$396 |
| $62 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | +$101 | +$230 | +$396 |
| $64 (+2%) | +$37 | +$136 | +$259 | +$396 |
| $65 (+4%) โ target | +$74 | +$171 | +$286 | +$396 |
| $69 (+10%) | +$157 | +$243 | +$337 | +$396 |
| $72 (+15%) | +$212 | +$288 | +$362 | +$396 |
| $75 (+20%) | +$255 | +$321 | +$378 | +$396 |