Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If INTU hits $370 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$1,825 (5.9%) on $-1,825 credit (max loss $30,675), vs +$1,906 (5.4%) for 100 shares on $35,094. Options give 1.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if INTU is at $370. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| INTU Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $281 (-20%) | -$3,467 | -$3,147 | -$2,795 | -$2,600 |
| $298 (-15%) | -$2,344 | -$1,935 | -$1,425 | -$845 |
| $316 (-10%) | -$1,397 | -$931 | -$316 | +$910 |
| $333 (-5%) | -$620 | -$135 | +$506 | +$1,825 |
| $344 (-2%) | -$230 | +$250 | +$871 | +$1,825 |
| $351 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$471 | +$1,066 | +$1,825 |
| $358 (+2%) | +$209 | +$667 | +$1,228 | +$1,825 |
| $370 (+5%) โ target | +$521 | +$947 | +$1,438 | +$1,825 |
| $386 (+10%) | +$854 | +$1,229 | +$1,617 | +$1,825 |
| $404 (+15%) | +$1,131 | +$1,443 | +$1,725 | +$1,825 |
| $421 (+20%) | +$1,334 | +$1,585 | +$1,780 | +$1,825 |