Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If IONQ hits $30 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$270 (11.6%) on $-270 credit (max loss $2,330), vs +$121 (4.2%) for 100 shares on $2,879. Options give 2.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if IONQ is at $30. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| IONQ Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $23 (-20%) | -$244 | -$188 | -$118 | -$27 |
| $24 (-15%) | -$170 | -$109 | -$29 | +$117 |
| $26 (-10%) | -$105 | -$41 | +$44 | +$261 |
| $27 (-5%) | -$49 | +$17 | +$103 | +$270 |
| $28 (-2%) | -$19 | +$47 | +$132 | +$270 |
| $29 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$66 | +$149 | +$270 |
| $29 (+2%) | +$18 | +$83 | +$164 | +$270 |
| $30 (+4%) โ target | +$36 | +$100 | +$179 | +$270 |
| $32 (+10%) | +$78 | +$139 | +$210 | +$270 |
| $33 (+15%) | +$109 | +$166 | +$228 | +$270 |
| $35 (+20%) | +$135 | +$187 | +$242 | +$270 |