Target Price Playground
IOT
$25.85
๐ข
IOT IV: 66.4% โ LOW
(-38.0% vs 30d avg of 107.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $23 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $26 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $3.4 ยท ฮ -0.47
SHORT PUT ยท $24 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $2.3 ยท ฮ -0.36
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If IOT hits $23 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$90 (81.8%) on $110 risked, vs $-335 (-13.0%) for 100 shares on $2,585. Options give 6.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if IOT is at $23. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if IOT hits $23 by Jun 19
+$90
+81.8% on $110 risked
Max Profit
+$90
If the stock โค $24 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$110
Net debit
Break-even
$24.90
-3.68% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
65%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-10.34 / -0.07 / 0.2
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| IOT Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $21 (-20%) | +$45 | +$52 | +$66 | +$90 |
| $22 (-15%) | +$32 | +$37 | +$49 | +$90 |
| $23 (-13%) โ target | +$26 | +$30 | +$41 | +$90 |
| $23 (-10%) | +$17 | +$20 | +$27 | +$90 |
| $25 (-5%) | +$3 | +$3 | +$3 | +$34 |
| $25 (-2%) | -$6 | -$8 | -$11 | -$43 |
| $26 (0%) โ spot | -$11 | -$15 | -$21 | -$95 |
| $26 (+2%) | -$17 | -$21 | -$30 | -$110 |
| $27 (+5%) | -$25 | -$31 | -$43 | -$110 |
| $28 (+10%) | -$37 | -$46 | -$62 | -$110 |
| $30 (+15%) | -$49 | -$59 | -$77 | -$110 |
| $31 (+20%) | -$59 | -$70 | -$88 | -$110 |
Uses IOT's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.