Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If IOT hits $27 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$230 (10.6%) on $-230 credit (max loss $2,170), vs +$115 (4.4%) for 100 shares on $2,585. Options give 2.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if IOT is at $27. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| IOT Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $21 (-20%) | -$207 | -$173 | -$134 | -$102 |
| $22 (-15%) | -$130 | -$90 | -$40 | +$27 |
| $23 (-10%) | -$63 | -$19 | +$38 | +$157 |
| $25 (-5%) | -$7 | +$39 | +$99 | +$230 |
| $25 (-2%) | +$22 | +$68 | +$127 | +$230 |
| $26 (0%) โ spot | +$40 | +$86 | +$144 | +$230 |
| $26 (+2%) | +$57 | +$102 | +$158 | +$230 |
| $27 (+4%) โ target | +$75 | +$119 | +$172 | +$230 |
| $28 (+10%) | +$111 | +$151 | +$196 | +$230 |
| $30 (+15%) | +$137 | +$173 | +$210 | +$230 |
| $31 (+20%) | +$157 | +$189 | +$218 | +$230 |