Target Price Playground
IOT
$25.85
๐ข
IOT IV: 59.3% โ LOW
(-44.6% vs 30d avg of 107.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $28 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $25.85 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $28 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $2.07 ยท ฮ 0.43
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If IOT hits $28 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$422 (17.7%) on $2,378 risked, vs +$215 (8.3%) for 100 shares on $2,585. Options give 2.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if IOT is at $28. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if IOT hits $28 by Jun 19
+$422
+17.7% on $2,378 risked
Max Profit
+$422
If the stock โฅ $28 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$2,378
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$23.78
-8.01% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
77%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
56.54 / 2.29 / -4.55
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| IOT Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $21 (-20%) | -$362 | -$337 | -$316 | -$310 |
| $22 (-15%) | -$261 | -$227 | -$195 | -$181 |
| $23 (-10%) | -$168 | -$126 | -$80 | -$51 |
| $25 (-5%) | -$84 | -$35 | +$23 | +$78 |
| $25 (-2%) | -$38 | +$14 | +$79 | +$155 |
| $26 (0%) โ spot | -$9 | +$46 | +$114 | +$207 |
| $26 (+2%) | +$18 | +$75 | +$146 | +$259 |
| $27 (+5%) | +$56 | +$115 | +$190 | +$336 |
| $28 (+8%) โ target | +$95 | +$155 | +$233 | +$422 |
| $28 (+10%) | +$114 | +$174 | +$252 | +$422 |
| $30 (+15%) | +$163 | +$224 | +$300 | +$422 |
| $31 (+20%) | +$205 | +$264 | +$336 | +$422 |
Uses IOT's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.