Target Price Playground
IOT
$25.85
๐ข
IOT IV: 66.4% โ LOW
(-38.0% vs 30d avg of 107.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $25 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $26 ยท Jul '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $3.03 ยท ฮ -0.46
SHORT PUT ยท $25 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $2.12 ยท ฮ -0.36
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If IOT hits $25 by Jun 19: the diagonal put spread returns +$168 (185.5%) on $91 risked, vs $-135 (-5.2%) for 100 shares on $2,585. Options give 35.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if IOT is at $25. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if IOT hits $25 by Jun 19
+$168
+185.5% on $91 risked
Max Profit
+$168
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$74
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$28.53
+10.35% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
85%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-9.69 / 0.29 / 1.04
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| IOT Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $21 (-20%) | +$58 | +$66 | +$76 | +$72 |
| $22 (-15%) | +$55 | +$64 | +$79 | +$94 |
| $23 (-10%) | +$50 | +$60 | +$78 | +$128 |
| $25 (-5%) โ target | +$44 | +$53 | +$71 | +$172 |
| $25 (-2%) | +$39 | +$47 | +$64 | +$127 |
| $26 (0%) โ spot | +$35 | +$43 | +$58 | +$101 |
| $26 (+2%) | +$32 | +$39 | +$52 | +$78 |
| $27 (+5%) | +$26 | +$32 | +$42 | +$48 |
| $28 (+10%) | +$17 | +$20 | +$23 | +$6 |
| $30 (+15%) | +$7 | +$7 | +$5 | -$24 |
| $31 (+20%) | -$3 | -$6 | -$13 | -$46 |
Uses IOT's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.