Target Price Playground
IOT
$25.85
๐ข
IOT IV: 59.3% โ LOW
(-44.6% vs 30d avg of 107.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $23 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $26 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $3.4 ยท ฮ -0.47
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If IOT hits $23 by Jun 19: the long put returns +$10 (2.9%) on $340 risked, vs $-335 (-13.0%) for 100 shares on $2,585. Options give 0.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if IOT is at $23. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if IOT hits $23 by Jun 19
+$10
+2.9% on $340 risked
Max Profit
+$2,260
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$340
Premium paid
Break-even
$22.60
-12.57% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
65%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-46.78 / -2.1 / 4.36
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| IOT Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $21 (-20%) | +$252 | +$226 | +$200 | +$192 |
| $22 (-15%) | +$162 | +$128 | +$89 | +$63 |
| $23 (-13%) โ target | +$127 | +$90 | +$47 | +$10 |
| $23 (-10%) | +$81 | +$40 | -$11 | -$67 |
| $25 (-5%) | +$10 | -$36 | -$96 | -$196 |
| $25 (-2%) | -$28 | -$76 | -$139 | -$273 |
| $26 (0%) โ spot | -$52 | -$100 | -$164 | -$325 |
| $26 (+2%) | -$74 | -$123 | -$188 | -$340 |
| $27 (+5%) | -$104 | -$153 | -$218 | -$340 |
| $28 (+10%) | -$149 | -$197 | -$258 | -$340 |
| $30 (+15%) | -$186 | -$232 | -$287 | -$340 |
| $31 (+20%) | -$216 | -$259 | -$306 | -$340 |
Uses IOT's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.