Target Price Playground
IOT
$25.85
๐ข
IOT IV: 66.4% โ LOW
(-38.0% vs 30d avg of 107.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $28 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $25.85 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $25 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $2.12 ยท ฮ -0.36
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If IOT hits $28 by Jun 19: the protective put returns +$3 (0.1%) on $2,797 risked, vs +$215 (8.3%) for 100 shares on $2,585.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if IOT is at $28. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if IOT hits $28 by Jun 19
+$3
+0.1% on $2,797 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$347
Put floors you at $24
Break-even
$27.97
+8.21% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
77%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
64.06 / -1.91 / 4.14
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| IOT Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $21 (-20%) | -$255 | -$287 | -$323 | -$347 |
| $22 (-15%) | -$206 | -$245 | -$293 | -$347 |
| $23 (-10%) | -$147 | -$190 | -$247 | -$347 |
| $25 (-5%) | -$78 | -$124 | -$185 | -$341 |
| $25 (-2%) | -$32 | -$79 | -$140 | -$264 |
| $26 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$46 | -$107 | -$212 |
| $26 (+2%) | +$34 | -$12 | -$71 | -$160 |
| $27 (+5%) | +$87 | +$42 | -$15 | -$83 |
| $28 (+8%) โ target | +$149 | +$106 | +$53 | +$3 |
| $28 (+10%) | +$182 | +$140 | +$90 | +$47 |
| $30 (+15%) | +$283 | +$244 | +$202 | +$176 |
| $31 (+20%) | +$389 | +$354 | +$321 | +$305 |
Uses IOT's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.