Target Price Playground
IOT
$25.85
๐ข
IOT IV: 59.3% โ LOW
(-44.6% vs 30d avg of 107.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $30 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $26 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $2.83 ยท ฮ 0.53
LONG PUT ยท $26 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $3.4 ยท ฮ -0.47
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If IOT hits $30 by Jun 19: the long straddle returns $-223 (-35.8%) on $623 risked, vs +$415 (16.1%) for 100 shares on $2,585. Options give 2.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if IOT is at $30. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if IOT hits $30 by Jun 19
$-223
-35.8% on $623 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$623
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$19.77
-23.52% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
57%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
6.69 / -4.42 / 8.73
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| IOT Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $21 (-20%) | +$51 | -$9 | -$68 | -$91 |
| $22 (-15%) | -$1 | -$76 | -$161 | -$220 |
| $23 (-10%) | -$34 | -$122 | -$231 | -$350 |
| $25 (-5%) | -$46 | -$145 | -$271 | -$479 |
| $25 (-2%) | -$45 | -$147 | -$280 | -$556 |
| $26 (0%) โ spot | -$40 | -$144 | -$280 | -$608 |
| $26 (+2%) | -$32 | -$137 | -$274 | -$586 |
| $27 (+5%) | -$16 | -$121 | -$258 | -$509 |
| $28 (+10%) | +$25 | -$79 | -$208 | -$379 |
| $30 (+15%) | +$80 | -$19 | -$136 | -$250 |
| $30 (+16%) โ target | +$94 | -$4 | -$119 | -$223 |
| $31 (+20%) | +$148 | +$56 | -$46 | -$121 |
Uses IOT's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.