Target Price Playground
ISRG
$450.62
๐ข
ISRG IV: 34.1% โ LOW
(-44.6% vs 30d avg of 61.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $395 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $450 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $25.4 ยท ฮ -0.45
SHORT PUT ยท $415 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $12.7 ยท ฮ -0.26
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ISRG hits $395 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$2,230 (175.6%) on $1,270 risked, vs $-5,562 (-12.3%) for 100 shares on $45,062. Options give 14.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ISRG is at $395. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ISRG hits $395 by Jun 19
+$2,230
+175.6% on $1,270 risked
Max Profit
+$2,230
If the stock โค $415 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,270
Net debit
Break-even
$437.30
-2.96% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
42%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-18.6 / -2.68 / 13.32
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ISRG Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $361 (-20%) | +$1,802 | +$1,954 | +$2,137 | +$2,230 |
| $383 (-15%) | +$1,473 | +$1,634 | +$1,897 | +$2,230 |
| $395 (-12%) โ target | +$1,258 | +$1,400 | +$1,659 | +$2,230 |
| $406 (-10%) | +$1,052 | +$1,163 | +$1,382 | +$2,230 |
| $428 (-5%) | +$585 | +$604 | +$642 | +$921 |
| $442 (-2%) | +$307 | +$265 | +$177 | -$431 |
| $451 (0%) โ spot | +$128 | +$50 | -$112 | -$1,270 |
| $460 (+2%) | -$41 | -$150 | -$369 | -$1,270 |
| $473 (+5%) | -$274 | -$418 | -$684 | -$1,270 |
| $496 (+10%) | -$597 | -$764 | -$1,022 | -$1,270 |
| $518 (+15%) | -$837 | -$992 | -$1,181 | -$1,270 |
| $541 (+20%) | -$1,004 | -$1,128 | -$1,242 | -$1,270 |
Uses ISRG's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.