Target Price Playground
ISRG
$450.62
๐ข
ISRG IV: 34.1% โ LOW
(-44.6% vs 30d avg of 61.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $485 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $450.62 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $485 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $14.28 ยท ฮ 0.35
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ISRG hits $485 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$4,866 (11.2%) on $43,634 risked, vs +$3,438 (7.6%) for 100 shares on $45,062. Options give 1.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ISRG is at $485. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ISRG hits $485 by Jun 19
+$4,866
+11.2% on $43,634 risked
Max Profit
+$4,866
If the stock โฅ $485 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$43,634
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$436.34
-3.17% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
62%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
64.65 / 19.42 / -70.55
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ISRG Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $361 (-20%) | -$7,656 | -$7,601 | -$7,584 | -$7,584 |
| $383 (-15%) | -$5,525 | -$5,399 | -$5,336 | -$5,331 |
| $406 (-10%) | -$3,522 | -$3,286 | -$3,114 | -$3,078 |
| $428 (-5%) | -$1,708 | -$1,340 | -$986 | -$825 |
| $442 (-2%) | -$734 | -$288 | +$195 | +$527 |
| $451 (0%) โ spot | -$138 | +$354 | +$919 | +$1,428 |
| $460 (+2%) | +$414 | +$945 | +$1,583 | +$2,329 |
| $473 (+5%) | +$1,158 | +$1,732 | +$2,450 | +$3,681 |
| $485 (+8%) โ target | +$1,727 | +$2,320 | +$3,071 | +$4,866 |
| $496 (+10%) | +$2,176 | +$2,772 | +$3,521 | +$4,866 |
| $518 (+15%) | +$2,937 | +$3,501 | +$4,166 | +$4,866 |
| $541 (+20%) | +$3,480 | +$3,975 | +$4,498 | +$4,866 |
Uses ISRG's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.