Target Price Playground
ISRG
$450.62
๐ข
ISRG IV: 34.1% โ LOW
(-44.6% vs 30d avg of 61.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $495 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $450.62 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $430 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $16.2 ยท ฮ -0.33
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ISRG hits $495 by Jun 19: the protective put returns +$2,818 (6.0%) on $46,682 risked, vs +$4,438 (9.8%) for 100 shares on $45,062. Options give 0.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ISRG is at $495. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ISRG hits $495 by Jun 19
+$2,818
+6.0% on $46,682 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$3,682
Put floors you at $430
Break-even
$466.82
+3.6% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
52%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
66.82 / -18.06 / 73.26
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ISRG Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $361 (-20%) | -$3,628 | -$3,727 | -$3,769 | -$3,682 |
| $383 (-15%) | -$3,164 | -$3,395 | -$3,626 | -$3,682 |
| $406 (-10%) | -$2,417 | -$2,764 | -$3,199 | -$3,682 |
| $428 (-5%) | -$1,357 | -$1,765 | -$2,312 | -$3,682 |
| $442 (-2%) | -$572 | -$984 | -$1,528 | -$2,521 |
| $451 (0%) โ spot | +$9 | -$393 | -$910 | -$1,620 |
| $460 (+2%) | +$632 | +$249 | -$224 | -$719 |
| $473 (+5%) | +$1,641 | +$1,296 | +$908 | +$633 |
| $495 (+10%) โ target | +$3,426 | +$3,160 | +$2,912 | +$2,818 |
| $518 (+15%) | +$5,480 | +$5,297 | +$5,165 | +$5,139 |
| $541 (+20%) | +$7,580 | +$7,462 | +$7,398 | +$7,392 |
Uses ISRG's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.