Target Price Playground
JNJ
$238.46
๐ข
JNJ IV: 25.0% โ LOW
(-46.6% vs 30d avg of 46.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $265 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $240 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $8.98 ยท ฮ 0.52
SHORT CALL ยท $260 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $2.54 ยท ฮ 0.21
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If JNJ hits $265 by Jun 19: the bull call spread returns +$1,356 (210.6%) on $644 risked, vs +$2,654 (11.1%) for 100 shares on $23,846. Options give 19.0ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if JNJ is at $265. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if JNJ hits $265 by Jun 19
+$1,356
+210.6% on $644 risked
Max Profit
+$1,356
If the stock โฅ $260 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$644
Net debit
Break-even
$246.44
+3.35% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
30%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
31.78 / -2.64 / 10.72
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| JNJ Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $191 (-20%) | -$630 | -$641 | -$644 | -$644 |
| $203 (-15%) | -$587 | -$623 | -$642 | -$644 |
| $215 (-10%) | -$477 | -$550 | -$622 | -$644 |
| $227 (-5%) | -$268 | -$361 | -$501 | -$644 |
| $234 (-2%) | -$96 | -$179 | -$326 | -$644 |
| $238 (0%) โ spot | +$34 | -$32 | -$157 | -$644 |
| $243 (+2%) | +$171 | +$130 | +$47 | -$321 |
| $250 (+5%) | +$380 | +$382 | +$385 | +$394 |
| $262 (+10%) | +$705 | +$769 | +$892 | +$1,356 |
| $265 (+11%) โ target | +$770 | +$844 | +$980 | +$1,356 |
| $274 (+15%) | +$962 | +$1,052 | +$1,192 | +$1,356 |
| $286 (+20%) | +$1,136 | +$1,217 | +$1,310 | +$1,356 |
Uses JNJ's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.