Target Price Playground
JNJ
$238.46
๐ข
JNJ IV: 25.0% โ LOW
(-46.6% vs 30d avg of 46.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $210 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $240 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $10.7 ยท ฮ -0.48
SHORT PUT ยท $220 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $3.65 ยท ฮ -0.21
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If JNJ hits $210 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$1,295 (183.7%) on $705 risked, vs $-2,846 (-11.9%) for 100 shares on $23,846. Options give 15.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if JNJ is at $210. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if JNJ hits $210 by Jun 19
+$1,295
+183.7% on $705 risked
Max Profit
+$1,295
If the stock โค $220 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$705
Net debit
Break-even
$232.95
-2.31% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
26%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-26.87 / -1.26 / 7.64
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| JNJ Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $191 (-20%) | +$1,187 | +$1,243 | +$1,284 | +$1,295 |
| $203 (-15%) | +$1,022 | +$1,114 | +$1,227 | +$1,295 |
| $210 (-12%) โ target | +$862 | +$959 | +$1,108 | +$1,295 |
| $215 (-10%) | +$739 | +$828 | +$978 | +$1,295 |
| $227 (-5%) | +$375 | +$404 | +$456 | +$641 |
| $234 (-2%) | +$151 | +$133 | +$92 | -$74 |
| $238 (0%) โ spot | +$10 | -$35 | -$127 | -$551 |
| $243 (+2%) | -$120 | -$185 | -$310 | -$705 |
| $250 (+5%) | -$287 | -$369 | -$505 | -$705 |
| $262 (+10%) | -$488 | -$565 | -$657 | -$705 |
| $274 (+15%) | -$604 | -$656 | -$697 | -$705 |
| $286 (+20%) | -$663 | -$690 | -$704 | -$705 |
Uses JNJ's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.