Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If JNJ hits $250 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$365 (1.7%) on $-365 credit (max loss $21,635), vs +$1,154 (4.8%) for 100 shares on $23,846. Options give 0.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if JNJ is at $250. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| JNJ Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $191 (-20%) | -$2,484 | -$2,480 | -$2,501 | -$2,558 |
| $203 (-15%) | -$1,508 | -$1,436 | -$1,367 | -$1,366 |
| $215 (-10%) | -$742 | -$615 | -$446 | -$174 |
| $227 (-5%) | -$218 | -$82 | +$97 | +$365 |
| $234 (-2%) | -$10 | +$110 | +$251 | +$365 |
| $238 (0%) โ spot | +$92 | +$196 | +$305 | +$365 |
| $243 (+2%) | +$170 | +$256 | +$336 | +$365 |
| $250 (+5%) โ target | +$247 | +$309 | +$356 | +$365 |
| $262 (+10%) | +$322 | +$351 | +$364 | +$365 |
| $274 (+15%) | +$350 | +$362 | +$365 | +$365 |
| $286 (+20%) | +$360 | +$364 | +$365 | +$365 |