Target Price Playground
JNJ
$238.46
๐ข
JNJ IV: 25.0% โ LOW
(-46.6% vs 30d avg of 46.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $260 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $238.46 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $260 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $2.54 ยท ฮ 0.21
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If JNJ hits $260 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$2,408 (10.2%) on $23,592 risked, vs +$2,154 (9.0%) for 100 shares on $23,846. Options give 1.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if JNJ is at $260. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if JNJ hits $260 by Jun 19
+$2,408
+10.2% on $23,592 risked
Max Profit
+$2,408
If the stock โฅ $260 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$23,592
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$235.92
-1.07% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
40%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
79.41 / 5.03 / -29.71
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| JNJ Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $191 (-20%) | -$4,517 | -$4,515 | -$4,515 | -$4,515 |
| $203 (-15%) | -$3,333 | -$3,325 | -$3,323 | -$3,323 |
| $215 (-10%) | -$2,174 | -$2,143 | -$2,131 | -$2,131 |
| $227 (-5%) | -$1,077 | -$997 | -$946 | -$938 |
| $234 (-2%) | -$473 | -$353 | -$253 | -$223 |
| $238 (0%) โ spot | -$100 | +$48 | +$190 | +$254 |
| $243 (+2%) | +$244 | +$420 | +$607 | +$731 |
| $250 (+5%) | +$702 | +$912 | +$1,161 | +$1,446 |
| $260 (+9%) โ target | +$1,200 | +$1,433 | +$1,726 | +$2,408 |
| $274 (+15%) | +$1,701 | +$1,919 | +$2,168 | +$2,408 |
| $286 (+20%) | +$1,944 | +$2,121 | +$2,293 | +$2,408 |
Uses JNJ's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.