Target Price Playground
JNJ
$238.46
๐ข
JNJ IV: 25.0% โ LOW
(-46.6% vs 30d avg of 46.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $225 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $240 ยท Jul '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $12.5 ยท ฮ -0.47
SHORT PUT ยท $225 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $3.97 ยท ฮ -0.25
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If JNJ hits $225 by Jun 19: the diagonal put spread returns +$747 (87.5%) on $853 risked, vs $-1,346 (-5.6%) for 100 shares on $23,846. Options give 15.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if JNJ is at $225. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if JNJ hits $225 by Jun 19
+$747
+87.5% on $853 risked
Max Profit
+$730
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$853
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$235.96
-1.05% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
60%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-22.15 / -0.62 / 15.79
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| JNJ Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $191 (-20%) | +$531 | +$553 | +$564 | +$564 |
| $203 (-15%) | +$470 | +$519 | +$564 | +$568 |
| $215 (-10%) | +$339 | +$406 | +$503 | +$602 |
| $225 (-6%) โ target | +$163 | +$220 | +$316 | +$728 |
| $234 (-2%) | -$12 | +$17 | +$61 | +$106 |
| $238 (0%) โ spot | -$112 | -$102 | -$94 | -$162 |
| $243 (+2%) | -$210 | -$220 | -$246 | -$375 |
| $250 (+5%) | -$349 | -$382 | -$445 | -$599 |
| $262 (+10%) | -$542 | -$594 | -$672 | -$782 |
| $274 (+15%) | -$677 | -$726 | -$785 | -$838 |
| $286 (+20%) | -$761 | -$797 | -$830 | -$850 |
Uses JNJ's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.