Target Price Playground
JNJ
$238.46
๐ข
JNJ IV: 25.0% โ LOW
(-46.6% vs 30d avg of 46.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $265 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $240 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $8.98 ยท ฮ 0.52
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If JNJ hits $265 by Jun 19: the long call returns +$1,602 (178.4%) on $898 risked, vs +$2,654 (11.1%) for 100 shares on $23,846. Options give 16.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if JNJ is at $265. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if JNJ hits $265 by Jun 19
+$1,602
+178.4% on $898 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$898
Premium paid
Break-even
$248.98
+4.41% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
30%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
52.37 / -7.67 / 40.43
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| JNJ Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $191 (-20%) | -$883 | -$895 | -$898 | -$898 |
| $203 (-15%) | -$831 | -$875 | -$896 | -$898 |
| $215 (-10%) | -$688 | -$792 | -$875 | -$898 |
| $227 (-5%) | -$383 | -$556 | -$747 | -$898 |
| $234 (-2%) | -$100 | -$303 | -$550 | -$898 |
| $238 (0%) โ spot | +$134 | -$80 | -$347 | -$898 |
| $243 (+2%) | +$403 | +$187 | -$83 | -$575 |
| $250 (+5%) | +$870 | +$662 | +$416 | +$140 |
| $262 (+10%) | +$1,790 | +$1,620 | +$1,450 | +$1,333 |
| $265 (+11%) โ target | +$2,017 | +$1,857 | +$1,703 | +$1,602 |
| $274 (+15%) | +$2,838 | +$2,710 | +$2,601 | +$2,525 |
| $286 (+20%) | +$3,961 | +$3,865 | +$3,786 | +$3,717 |
Uses JNJ's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.