Target Price Playground
JNJ
$238.46
๐ข
JNJ IV: 25.0% โ LOW
(-46.6% vs 30d avg of 46.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $260 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $238.46 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $225 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $3.97 ยท ฮ -0.25
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If JNJ hits $260 by Jun 19: the protective put returns +$1,757 (7.2%) on $24,243 risked, vs +$2,154 (9.0%) for 100 shares on $23,846. Options give 0.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if JNJ is at $260. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if JNJ hits $260 by Jun 19
+$1,757
+7.2% on $24,243 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$1,743
Put floors you at $225
Break-even
$242.43
+1.67% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
40%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
75.09 / -5.22 / 32.4
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| JNJ Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $191 (-20%) | -$1,860 | -$1,844 | -$1,805 | -$1,743 |
| $203 (-15%) | -$1,703 | -$1,749 | -$1,778 | -$1,743 |
| $215 (-10%) | -$1,366 | -$1,478 | -$1,616 | -$1,743 |
| $227 (-5%) | -$796 | -$938 | -$1,131 | -$1,589 |
| $234 (-2%) | -$343 | -$479 | -$654 | -$874 |
| $238 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$124 | -$272 | -$397 |
| $243 (+2%) | +$372 | +$263 | +$147 | +$80 |
| $250 (+5%) | +$973 | +$891 | +$818 | +$795 |
| $260 (+9%) โ target | +$1,843 | +$1,793 | +$1,762 | +$1,757 |
| $274 (+15%) | +$3,206 | +$3,187 | +$3,180 | +$3,180 |
| $286 (+20%) | +$4,381 | +$4,374 | +$4,372 | +$4,372 |
Uses JNJ's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.