Target Price Playground
JNJ
$238.46
๐ข
JNJ IV: 25.0% โ LOW
(-46.6% vs 30d avg of 46.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $275 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $240 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $8.98 ยท ฮ 0.52
LONG PUT ยท $240 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $10.7 ยท ฮ -0.48
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If JNJ hits $275 by Jun 19: the long straddle returns +$1,532 (77.8%) on $1,968 risked, vs +$3,654 (15.3%) for 100 shares on $23,846. Options give 5.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if JNJ is at $275. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if JNJ hits $275 by Jun 19
+$1,532
+77.8% on $1,968 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$1,968
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$220.32
-7.61% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
15%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
4.39 / -14.76 / 80.8
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| JNJ Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $191 (-20%) | +$2,788 | +$2,828 | +$2,887 | +$2,955 |
| $203 (-15%) | +$1,699 | +$1,675 | +$1,698 | +$1,763 |
| $215 (-10%) | +$794 | +$650 | +$549 | +$571 |
| $227 (-5%) | +$210 | -$71 | -$389 | -$622 |
| $234 (-2%) | +$61 | -$279 | -$708 | -$1,337 |
| $238 (0%) โ spot | +$52 | -$310 | -$779 | -$1,814 |
| $243 (+2%) | +$114 | -$255 | -$729 | -$1,645 |
| $250 (+5%) | +$332 | -$19 | -$445 | -$930 |
| $262 (+10%) | +$980 | +$704 | +$428 | +$263 |
| $275 (+15%) โ target | +$1,948 | +$1,762 | +$1,614 | +$1,532 |
| $286 (+20%) | +$2,938 | +$2,811 | +$2,717 | +$2,647 |
Uses JNJ's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.