Target Price Playground
JNJ
$238.46
๐ข
JNJ IV: 25.0% โ LOW
(-46.6% vs 30d avg of 46.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $210 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $240 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $10.7 ยท ฮ -0.48
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If JNJ hits $210 by Jun 19: the long put returns +$1,930 (180.4%) on $1,070 risked, vs $-2,846 (-11.9%) for 100 shares on $23,846. Options give 15.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if JNJ is at $210. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if JNJ hits $210 by Jun 19
+$1,930
+180.4% on $1,070 risked
Max Profit
+$22,930
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$1,070
Premium paid
Break-even
$229.30
-3.84% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
26%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-47.98 / -7.09 / 40.38
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| JNJ Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $191 (-20%) | +$3,671 | +$3,723 | +$3,785 | +$3,853 |
| $203 (-15%) | +$2,530 | +$2,551 | +$2,595 | +$2,661 |
| $210 (-12%) โ target | +$1,872 | +$1,858 | +$1,871 | +$1,930 |
| $215 (-10%) | +$1,482 | +$1,442 | +$1,424 | +$1,469 |
| $227 (-5%) | +$593 | +$485 | +$359 | +$276 |
| $234 (-2%) | +$161 | +$24 | -$159 | -$439 |
| $238 (0%) โ spot | -$82 | -$231 | -$433 | -$916 |
| $243 (+2%) | -$289 | -$441 | -$646 | -$1,070 |
| $250 (+5%) | -$538 | -$681 | -$861 | -$1,070 |
| $262 (+10%) | -$810 | -$916 | -$1,021 | -$1,070 |
| $274 (+15%) | -$955 | -$1,018 | -$1,062 | -$1,070 |
| $286 (+20%) | -$1,023 | -$1,055 | -$1,069 | -$1,070 |
Uses JNJ's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.