Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If JPM hits $325 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$545 (1.9%) on $-545 credit (max loss $27,955), vs +$1,513 (4.9%) for 100 shares on $30,987. Options give 0.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if JPM is at $325. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| JPM Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $248 (-20%) | -$3,125 | -$3,096 | -$3,099 | -$3,165 |
| $263 (-15%) | -$1,901 | -$1,782 | -$1,656 | -$1,616 |
| $279 (-10%) | -$943 | -$757 | -$509 | -$67 |
| $294 (-5%) | -$277 | -$82 | +$171 | +$545 |
| $304 (-2%) | -$4 | +$169 | +$374 | +$545 |
| $310 (0%) โ spot | +$133 | +$286 | +$450 | +$545 |
| $316 (+2%) | +$241 | +$371 | +$495 | +$545 |
| $325 (+5%) โ target | +$353 | +$451 | +$527 | +$545 |
| $341 (+10%) | +$466 | +$517 | +$543 | +$545 |
| $356 (+15%) | +$515 | +$537 | +$545 | +$545 |
| $372 (+20%) | +$534 | +$543 | +$545 | +$545 |