Target Price Playground
KEYS
$324.18
๐ข
KEYS IV: 48.1% โ LOW
(-35.2% vs 30d avg of 74.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $365 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $325 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $28.05 ยท ฮ 0.55
SHORT CALL ยท $350 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $17.2 ยท ฮ 0.41
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If KEYS hits $365 by Jun 19: the bull call spread returns +$1,415 (130.5%) on $1,085 risked, vs +$4,082 (12.6%) for 100 shares on $32,418. Options give 10.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if KEYS is at $365. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if KEYS hits $365 by Jun 19
+$1,415
+130.5% on $1,085 risked
Max Profit
+$1,415
If the stock โฅ $350 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,085
Net debit
Break-even
$335.85
+3.6% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
55%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
14.54 / -0.22 / 4.95
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| KEYS Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $259 (-20%) | -$849 | -$939 | -$1,045 | -$1,085 |
| $276 (-15%) | -$705 | -$808 | -$963 | -$1,085 |
| $292 (-10%) | -$525 | -$621 | -$798 | -$1,085 |
| $308 (-5%) | -$318 | -$386 | -$533 | -$1,085 |
| $318 (-2%) | -$185 | -$228 | -$332 | -$1,085 |
| $324 (0%) โ spot | -$95 | -$120 | -$187 | -$1,085 |
| $331 (+2%) | -$4 | -$10 | -$36 | -$519 |
| $340 (+5%) | +$131 | +$155 | +$193 | +$454 |
| $357 (+10%) | +$347 | +$417 | +$552 | +$1,415 |
| $365 (+13%) โ target | +$452 | +$543 | +$715 | +$1,415 |
| $373 (+15%) | +$545 | +$651 | +$849 | +$1,415 |
| $389 (+20%) | +$720 | +$848 | +$1,069 | +$1,415 |
Uses KEYS's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.