Target Price Playground
KEYS
$324.18
๐ข
KEYS IV: 48.1% โ LOW
(-35.2% vs 30d avg of 74.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $285 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $325 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $26.19 ยท ฮ -0.45
SHORT PUT ยท $300 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $17.3 ยท ฮ -0.32
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If KEYS hits $285 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$1,611 (181.1%) on $889 risked, vs $-3,918 (-12.1%) for 100 shares on $32,418. Options give 15.0ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if KEYS is at $285. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if KEYS hits $285 by Jun 19
+$1,611
+181.1% on $889 risked
Max Profit
+$1,611
If the stock โค $300 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$889
Net debit
Break-even
$316.11
-2.49% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
57%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-12.96 / 0.62 / 3.13
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| KEYS Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $259 (-20%) | +$1,163 | +$1,272 | +$1,444 | +$1,611 |
| $276 (-15%) | +$958 | +$1,052 | +$1,231 | +$1,611 |
| $285 (-12%) โ target | +$825 | +$900 | +$1,054 | +$1,611 |
| $292 (-10%) | +$726 | +$783 | +$906 | +$1,611 |
| $308 (-5%) | +$482 | +$489 | +$508 | +$814 |
| $318 (-2%) | +$337 | +$312 | +$263 | -$159 |
| $324 (0%) โ spot | +$243 | +$198 | +$105 | -$807 |
| $331 (+2%) | +$152 | +$87 | -$43 | -$889 |
| $340 (+5%) | +$22 | -$67 | -$242 | -$889 |
| $357 (+10%) | -$174 | -$292 | -$503 | -$889 |
| $373 (+15%) | -$341 | -$471 | -$676 | -$889 |
| $389 (+20%) | -$477 | -$606 | -$780 | -$889 |
Uses KEYS's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.