Target Price Playground

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KEYS
$324.18
🟒
KEYS IV: 48.1% β€” LOW (-35.2% vs 30d avg of 74.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg β€” good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection If price hits $340 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest Coming soon
Signal Backtest Coming soon

πŸ“‹ Strategy

Long Stock Long Call Long Put Bull Call Spread Bear Put Spread Covered Call Protective Put Cash-Secured Put Diagonal Put Spread Long Straddle
Sell OTM put for premium; get assigned if price drops.

🎯 Target

67d from today

βš™οΈ Legs

SHORT PUT Β· $300 Β· Jun '26
Qty 1 Β· Premium $17.3 Β· Ξ” -0.32
P&L at Expiry Now $324 Target $340 $227 $324 $421
Stock (100 sh) Cash-Secured Put Now Target
πŸ’‘ Stock vs Options at Target

If KEYS hits $340 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$1,730 (6.1%) on $-1,730 credit (max loss $28,270), vs +$1,582 (4.9%) for 100 shares on $32,418. Options give 1.2Γ— capital efficiency.

πŸ“… Expiry

Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if KEYS is at $340. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.

πŸ“Š Projected Return

P&L if KEYS hits $340 by Jun 19
+$1,730
+6.1% on $28,270 max loss
Max Profit
+$1,730
If the stock β‰₯ $300 at expiry
Max Loss
βˆ’$28,270
If stock β†’ $0 after assignment
Break-even
$282.70
-12.8% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
82%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net Ξ” / Θ / V
31.77 / 18.66 / -51.79
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
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πŸ“‹ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)

Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode β€” ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score β‰₯ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.

πŸ“Š P&L Scenarios β€” what happens at different prices and dates

KEYS Price Today May 5 May 27 Jun 19 (exp)
$259 (-20%) -$2,992 -$2,734 -$2,461 -$2,336
$276 (-15%) -$1,930 -$1,588 -$1,166 -$715
$292 (-10%) -$1,040 -$645 -$123 +$906
$308 (-5%) -$321 +$91 +$636 +$1,730
$318 (-2%) +$35 +$441 +$963 +$1,730
$324 (0%) ← spot +$243 +$639 +$1,135 +$1,730
$331 (+2%) +$429 +$811 +$1,273 +$1,730
$340 (+5%) ← target +$664 +$1,019 +$1,425 +$1,730
$357 (+10%) +$991 +$1,291 +$1,590 +$1,730
$373 (+15%) +$1,222 +$1,464 +$1,669 +$1,730
$389 (+20%) +$1,386 +$1,572 +$1,705 +$1,730
Uses KEYS's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.