Target Price Playground
KEYS
$324.18
๐ข
KEYS IV: 48.1% โ LOW
(-35.2% vs 30d avg of 74.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $285 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $325 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $26.19 ยท ฮ -0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If KEYS hits $285 by Jun 19: the long put returns +$1,381 (52.7%) on $2,619 risked, vs $-3,918 (-12.1%) for 100 shares on $32,418. Options give 4.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if KEYS is at $285. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if KEYS hits $285 by Jun 19
+$1,381
+52.7% on $2,619 risked
Max Profit
+$29,881
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$2,619
Premium paid
Break-even
$298.81
-7.83% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
57%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-44.73 / -18.04 / 54.93
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| KEYS Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $259 (-20%) | +$4,155 | +$4,006 | +$3,905 | +$3,947 |
| $276 (-15%) | +$2,887 | +$2,640 | +$2,397 | +$2,326 |
| $285 (-12%) โ target | +$2,215 | +$1,912 | +$1,577 | +$1,381 |
| $292 (-10%) | +$1,766 | +$1,428 | +$1,029 | +$705 |
| $308 (-5%) | +$803 | +$397 | -$128 | -$916 |
| $318 (-2%) | +$303 | -$129 | -$701 | -$1,889 |
| $324 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$441 | -$1,029 | -$2,537 |
| $331 (+2%) | -$277 | -$724 | -$1,316 | -$2,619 |
| $340 (+5%) | -$651 | -$1,095 | -$1,672 | -$2,619 |
| $357 (+10%) | -$1,166 | -$1,583 | -$2,093 | -$2,619 |
| $373 (+15%) | -$1,563 | -$1,934 | -$2,345 | -$2,619 |
| $389 (+20%) | -$1,863 | -$2,178 | -$2,485 | -$2,619 |
Uses KEYS's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.