Target Price Playground
KEYS
$324.18
๐ข
KEYS IV: 47.6% โ LOW
(-35.9% vs 30d avg of 74.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $365 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy shares and hold. Unlimited upside, full downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $324.18 ยท ฮ 1.00
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Stock
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If KEYS hits $365 by Jun 19: the long stock returns +$4,082 (12.6%) on $32,418 risked, vs $ (None%) for 100 shares on $.
๐ Expiry
Stock-only position โ no expiry. Target date is Jun 19.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if KEYS hits $365 by Jun 19
+$4,082
+12.6% on $32,418 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$32,418
If stock โ $0
Break-even
$324.18
+0.0% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
55%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
100.0 / 0.0 / 0.0
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| KEYS Price | Today | May 13 | Jun 12 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $259 (-20%) | -$6,484 | -$6,484 | -$6,484 |
| $276 (-15%) | -$4,863 | -$4,863 | -$4,863 |
| $292 (-10%) | -$3,242 | -$3,242 | -$3,242 |
| $308 (-5%) | -$1,621 | -$1,621 | -$1,621 |
| $318 (-2%) | -$648 | -$648 | -$648 |
| $324 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$0 | +$0 |
| $331 (+2%) | +$648 | +$648 | +$648 |
| $340 (+5%) | +$1,621 | +$1,621 | +$1,621 |
| $357 (+10%) | +$3,242 | +$3,242 | +$3,242 |
| $365 (+13%) โ target | +$4,082 | +$4,082 | +$4,082 |
| $373 (+15%) | +$4,863 | +$4,863 | +$4,863 |
| $389 (+20%) | +$6,484 | +$6,484 | +$6,484 |
Uses KEYS's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.