Target Price Playground
KEYS
$324.18
๐ข
KEYS IV: 47.6% โ LOW
(-35.9% vs 30d avg of 74.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $355 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $324.18 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $310 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $35.5 ยท ฮ -0.37
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If KEYS hits $355 by Jun 19: the protective put returns $-468 (-1.3%) on $35,968 risked, vs +$3,082 (9.5%) for 100 shares on $32,418. Options give 0.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if KEYS is at $355. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if KEYS hits $355 by Jun 19
$-468
-1.3% on $35,968 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$4,968
Put floors you at $310
Break-even
$359.68
+10.95% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
65%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
62.88 / -18.66 / 52.87
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| KEYS Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $259 (-20%) | -$4,520 | -$4,735 | -$4,934 | -$4,968 |
| $276 (-15%) | -$4,051 | -$4,360 | -$4,715 | -$4,968 |
| $292 (-10%) | -$3,418 | -$3,798 | -$4,287 | -$4,968 |
| $308 (-5%) | -$2,616 | -$3,036 | -$3,595 | -$4,968 |
| $318 (-2%) | -$2,057 | -$2,484 | -$3,047 | -$4,198 |
| $324 (0%) โ spot | -$1,655 | -$2,078 | -$2,631 | -$3,550 |
| $331 (+2%) | -$1,229 | -$1,645 | -$2,177 | -$2,902 |
| $340 (+5%) | -$550 | -$947 | -$1,432 | -$1,929 |
| $355 (+10%) โ target | +$552 | +$196 | -$199 | -$468 |
| $373 (+15%) | +$2,007 | +$1,713 | +$1,431 | +$1,313 |
| $389 (+20%) | +$3,415 | +$3,179 | +$2,986 | +$2,934 |
Uses KEYS's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.