Target Price Playground
KEYS
$324.18
๐ข
KEYS IV: 47.6% โ LOW
(-35.9% vs 30d avg of 74.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $375 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $325 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $28.05 ยท ฮ 0.55
LONG PUT ยท $325 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $26.19 ยท ฮ -0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If KEYS hits $375 by Jun 19: the long straddle returns $-424 (-7.8%) on $5,424 risked, vs +$5,082 (15.7%) for 100 shares on $32,418. Options give 0.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if KEYS is at $375. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if KEYS hits $375 by Jun 19
$-424
-7.8% on $5,424 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$5,424
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$270.76
-16.48% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
46%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
10.54 / -40.05 / 109.85
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| KEYS Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $259 (-20%) | +$1,825 | +$1,440 | +$1,150 | +$1,142 |
| $276 (-15%) | +$911 | +$329 | -$246 | -$479 |
| $292 (-10%) | +$289 | -$475 | -$1,360 | -$2,100 |
| $308 (-5%) | -$15 | -$915 | -$2,053 | -$3,721 |
| $318 (-2%) | -$43 | -$994 | -$2,226 | -$4,694 |
| $324 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$971 | -$2,235 | -$5,342 |
| $331 (+2%) | +$93 | -$888 | -$2,160 | -$4,858 |
| $340 (+5%) | +$319 | -$656 | -$1,900 | -$3,885 |
| $357 (+10%) | +$910 | -$12 | -$1,119 | -$2,264 |
| $375 (+16%) โ target | +$1,864 | +$1,048 | +$168 | -$424 |
| $389 (+20%) | +$2,758 | +$2,040 | +$1,338 | +$978 |
Uses KEYS's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.