Target Price Playground
KEYS
$324.18
๐ข
KEYS IV: 48.1% โ LOW
(-35.2% vs 30d avg of 74.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $350 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $324.18 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $350 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $17.2 ยท ฮ 0.41
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If KEYS hits $350 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$4,302 (14.0%) on $30,698 risked, vs +$2,582 (8.0%) for 100 shares on $32,418. Options give 1.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if KEYS is at $350. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if KEYS hits $350 by Jun 19
+$4,302
+14.0% on $30,698 risked
Max Profit
+$4,302
If the stock โฅ $350 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$30,698
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$306.98
-5.31% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
71%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
59.27 / 21.79 / -49.97
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| KEYS Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $259 (-20%) | -$5,003 | -$4,858 | -$4,774 | -$4,764 |
| $276 (-15%) | -$3,592 | -$3,359 | -$3,184 | -$3,143 |
| $292 (-10%) | -$2,290 | -$1,960 | -$1,651 | -$1,522 |
| $308 (-5%) | -$1,120 | -$695 | -$229 | +$99 |
| $318 (-2%) | -$487 | -$11 | +$544 | +$1,072 |
| $324 (0%) โ spot | -$95 | +$410 | +$1,018 | +$1,720 |
| $331 (+2%) | +$274 | +$802 | +$1,456 | +$2,368 |
| $340 (+5%) | +$782 | +$1,338 | +$2,041 | +$3,341 |
| $350 (+8%) โ target | +$1,232 | +$1,803 | +$2,532 | +$4,302 |
| $357 (+10%) | +$1,513 | +$2,088 | +$2,820 | +$4,302 |
| $373 (+15%) | +$2,108 | +$2,674 | +$3,370 | +$4,302 |
| $389 (+20%) | +$2,583 | +$3,114 | +$3,729 | +$4,302 |
Uses KEYS's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.