Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If KVYO hits $17 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$26 (1.8%) on $-26 credit (max loss $1,474), vs +$60 (3.7%) for 100 shares on $1,640. Options give 0.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if KVYO is at $17. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| KVYO Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $13 (-20%) | -$165 | -$162 | -$159 | -$162 |
| $14 (-15%) | -$104 | -$96 | -$86 | -$80 |
| $15 (-10%) | -$56 | -$44 | -$29 | +$2 |
| $16 (-5%) | -$22 | -$10 | +$5 | +$26 |
| $16 (-2%) | -$7 | +$3 | +$15 | +$26 |
| $16 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$9 | +$20 | +$26 |
| $17 (+2%) | +$6 | +$14 | +$22 | +$26 |
| $17 (+4%) โ target | +$10 | +$17 | +$24 | +$26 |
| $17 (+5%) | +$13 | +$19 | +$25 | +$26 |
| $18 (+10%) | +$20 | +$24 | +$26 | +$26 |
| $19 (+15%) | +$23 | +$25 | +$26 | +$26 |
| $20 (+20%) | +$25 | +$26 | +$26 | +$26 |