Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If LIN hits $530 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$751 (1.6%) on $-751 credit (max loss $45,749), vs +$2,685 (5.3%) for 100 shares on $50,315. Options give 0.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if LIN is at $530. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| LIN Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $403 (-20%) | -$5,319 | -$5,322 | -$5,375 | -$5,497 |
| $428 (-15%) | -$3,238 | -$3,098 | -$2,968 | -$2,981 |
| $453 (-10%) | -$1,600 | -$1,339 | -$994 | -$466 |
| $478 (-5%) | -$480 | -$196 | +$177 | +$751 |
| $493 (-2%) | -$36 | +$214 | +$509 | +$751 |
| $503 (0%) โ spot | +$181 | +$397 | +$626 | +$751 |
| $513 (+2%) | +$346 | +$525 | +$690 | +$751 |
| $530 (+5%) โ target | +$531 | +$651 | +$735 | +$751 |
| $553 (+10%) | +$665 | +$723 | +$749 | +$751 |
| $579 (+15%) | +$722 | +$745 | +$751 | +$751 |
| $604 (+20%) | +$742 | +$750 | +$751 | +$751 |