Target Price Playground
LITE
$897.30
๐ข
LITE IV: 91.2% โ LOW
(-28.3% vs 30d avg of 127.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $790 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $900 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $152.17 ยท ฮ -0.41
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If LITE hits $790 by Jun 19: the long put returns $-4,217 (-27.7%) on $15,217 risked, vs $-10,730 (-12.0%) for 100 shares on $89,730. Options give 2.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if LITE is at $790. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if LITE hits $790 by Jun 19
$-4,217
-27.7% on $15,217 risked
Max Profit
+$74,783
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$15,217
Premium paid
Break-even
$747.83
-16.66% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
76%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-41.16 / -108.82 / 150.84
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| LITE Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $718 (-20%) | +$8,035 | +$6,352 | +$4,421 | +$2,999 |
| $763 (-15%) | +$5,311 | +$3,379 | +$1,009 | -$1,487 |
| $790 (-12%) โ target | +$3,781 | +$1,720 | -$884 | -$4,217 |
| $808 (-10%) | +$2,846 | +$712 | -$2,025 | -$5,974 |
| $852 (-5%) | +$631 | -$1,655 | -$4,657 | -$10,460 |
| $879 (-2%) | -$584 | -$2,935 | -$6,043 | -$13,152 |
| $897 (0%) โ spot | -$1,349 | -$3,733 | -$6,889 | -$14,947 |
| $915 (+2%) | -$2,078 | -$4,487 | -$7,673 | -$15,217 |
| $942 (+5%) | -$3,108 | -$5,540 | -$8,739 | -$15,217 |
| $987 (+10%) | -$4,665 | -$7,099 | -$10,244 | -$15,217 |
| $1032 (+15%) | -$6,037 | -$8,434 | -$11,445 | -$15,217 |
| $1077 (+20%) | -$7,242 | -$9,569 | -$12,387 | -$15,217 |
Uses LITE's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.