Target Price Playground
LITE
$897.30
๐ข
LITE IV: 91.0% โ LOW
(-28.4% vs 30d avg of 127.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $990 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $897.3 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $850 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $126.8 ยท ฮ -0.36
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If LITE hits $990 by Jun 19: the protective put returns $-3,410 (-3.3%) on $102,410 risked, vs +$9,270 (10.3%) for 100 shares on $89,730. Options give 0.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if LITE is at $990. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if LITE hits $990 by Jun 19
$-3,410
-3.3% on $102,410 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$17,410
Put floors you at $850
Break-even
$1024.10
+14.13% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
79%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
63.95 / -103.1 / 146.22
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| LITE Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $718 (-20%) | -$11,094 | -$12,906 | -$15,122 | -$17,410 |
| $763 (-15%) | -$9,080 | -$11,096 | -$13,681 | -$17,410 |
| $808 (-10%) | -$6,802 | -$8,967 | -$11,814 | -$17,410 |
| $852 (-5%) | -$4,275 | -$6,534 | -$9,525 | -$17,167 |
| $879 (-2%) | -$2,646 | -$4,936 | -$7,957 | -$14,475 |
| $897 (0%) โ spot | -$1,517 | -$3,817 | -$6,836 | -$12,680 |
| $915 (+2%) | -$353 | -$2,656 | -$5,657 | -$10,885 |
| $942 (+5%) | +$1,452 | -$842 | -$3,788 | -$8,194 |
| $990 (+10%) โ target | +$4,828 | +$2,585 | -$197 | -$3,410 |
| $1032 (+15%) | +$7,944 | +$5,775 | +$3,188 | +$779 |
| $1077 (+20%) | +$11,429 | +$9,363 | +$7,018 | +$5,266 |
Uses LITE's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.