Target Price Playground
LITE
$897.30
๐ข
LITE IV: 91.2% โ LOW
(-28.3% vs 30d avg of 127.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $1030 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $900 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $158.59 ยท ฮ 0.59
LONG PUT ยท $900 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $152.17 ยท ฮ -0.41
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If LITE hits $1030 by Jun 19: the long straddle returns $-18,076 (-58.2%) on $31,076 risked, vs +$13,270 (14.8%) for 100 shares on $89,730. Options give 3.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if LITE is at $1030. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if LITE hits $1030 by Jun 19
$-18,076
-58.2% on $31,076 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$31,076
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$589.24
-34.33% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
71%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
17.89 / -225.94 / 301.55
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| LITE Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $718 (-20%) | -$2,048 | -$5,657 | -$9,760 | -$12,860 |
| $763 (-15%) | -$3,009 | -$7,116 | -$12,100 | -$17,346 |
| $808 (-10%) | -$3,452 | -$7,964 | -$13,680 | -$21,833 |
| $852 (-5%) | -$3,396 | -$8,210 | -$14,458 | -$26,319 |
| $879 (-2%) | -$3,134 | -$8,079 | -$14,538 | -$29,011 |
| $897 (0%) โ spot | -$2,869 | -$7,879 | -$14,434 | -$30,806 |
| $915 (+2%) | -$2,532 | -$7,593 | -$14,208 | -$29,551 |
| $942 (+5%) | -$1,901 | -$7,008 | -$13,650 | -$26,860 |
| $987 (+10%) | -$528 | -$5,639 | -$12,173 | -$22,373 |
| $1030 (+15%) โ target | +$1,134 | -$3,907 | -$10,187 | -$18,076 |
| $1077 (+20%) | +$3,291 | -$1,606 | -$7,485 | -$13,400 |
Uses LITE's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.