Target Price Playground
LITE
$897.30
๐ข
LITE IV: 91.2% โ LOW
(-28.3% vs 30d avg of 127.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $970 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $897.3 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $970 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $134.52 ยท ฮ 0.52
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If LITE hits $970 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$20,722 (27.2%) on $76,278 risked, vs +$7,270 (8.1%) for 100 shares on $89,730. Options give 3.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if LITE is at $970. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if LITE hits $970 by Jun 19
+$20,722
+27.2% on $76,278 risked
Max Profit
+$20,722
If the stock โฅ $970 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$76,278
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$762.78
-14.99% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
84%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
47.91 / 114.96 / -156.96
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| LITE Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $718 (-20%) | -$8,881 | -$7,161 | -$5,411 | -$4,494 |
| $763 (-15%) | -$5,842 | -$3,833 | -$1,606 | -$8 |
| $808 (-10%) | -$3,049 | -$780 | +$1,901 | +$4,479 |
| $852 (-5%) | -$498 | +$1,989 | +$5,065 | +$8,965 |
| $879 (-2%) | +$919 | +$3,515 | +$6,788 | +$11,657 |
| $897 (0%) โ spot | +$1,817 | +$4,477 | +$7,862 | +$13,452 |
| $915 (+2%) | +$2,680 | +$5,395 | +$8,876 | +$15,247 |
| $942 (+5%) | +$3,908 | +$6,691 | +$10,284 | +$17,938 |
| $970 (+8%) โ target | +$5,098 | +$7,933 | +$11,602 | +$20,722 |
| $987 (+10%) | +$5,787 | +$8,645 | +$12,342 | +$20,722 |
| $1032 (+15%) | +$7,467 | +$10,356 | +$14,057 | +$20,722 |
| $1077 (+20%) | +$8,966 | +$11,844 | +$15,465 | +$20,722 |
Uses LITE's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.