Target Price Playground
LLY
$939.47
๐ข
LLY IV: 39.2% โ LOW
(-28.8% vs 30d avg of 55.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $830 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $940 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $62.0 ยท ฮ -0.46
SHORT PUT ยท $860 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $30.75 ยท ฮ -0.27
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If LLY hits $830 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$4,875 (156.0%) on $3,125 risked, vs $-10,947 (-11.7%) for 100 shares on $93,947. Options give 13.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if LLY is at $830. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if LLY hits $830 by Jun 19
+$4,875
+156.0% on $3,125 risked
Max Profit
+$4,875
If the stock โค $860 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$3,125
Net debit
Break-even
$908.75
-3.27% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
49%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-18.77 / -6.65 / 27.92
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| LLY Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $752 (-20%) | +$3,720 | +$4,077 | +$4,558 | +$4,875 |
| $799 (-15%) | +$2,978 | +$3,322 | +$3,921 | +$4,875 |
| $830 (-12%) โ target | +$2,386 | +$2,659 | +$3,190 | +$4,875 |
| $846 (-10%) | +$2,075 | +$2,296 | +$2,744 | +$4,875 |
| $893 (-5%) | +$1,101 | +$1,124 | +$1,178 | +$1,625 |
| $921 (-2%) | +$523 | +$421 | +$211 | -$1,193 |
| $939 (0%) โ spot | +$151 | -$26 | -$391 | -$3,072 |
| $958 (+2%) | -$203 | -$448 | -$936 | -$3,125 |
| $986 (+5%) | -$696 | -$1,019 | -$1,623 | -$3,125 |
| $1033 (+10%) | -$1,399 | -$1,786 | -$2,409 | -$3,125 |
| $1080 (+15%) | -$1,946 | -$2,325 | -$2,825 | -$3,125 |
| $1127 (+20%) | -$2,347 | -$2,673 | -$3,014 | -$3,125 |
Uses LLY's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.