Target Price Playground
LLY
$939.47
๐ข
LLY IV: 39.1% โ LOW
(-29.0% vs 30d avg of 55.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $1010 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $939.47 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $1010 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $35.8 ยท ฮ 0.37
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If LLY hits $1010 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$10,633 (11.8%) on $90,367 risked, vs +$7,053 (7.5%) for 100 shares on $93,947. Options give 1.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if LLY is at $1010. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if LLY hits $1010 by Jun 19
+$10,633
+11.8% on $90,367 risked
Max Profit
+$10,633
If the stock โฅ $1010 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$90,367
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$903.67
-3.81% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
66%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
62.63 / 46.91 / -145.81
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| LLY Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $752 (-20%) | -$15,469 | -$15,285 | -$15,213 | -$15,209 |
| $799 (-15%) | -$11,127 | -$10,757 | -$10,539 | -$10,512 |
| $846 (-10%) | -$7,079 | -$6,455 | -$5,952 | -$5,815 |
| $893 (-5%) | -$3,433 | -$2,529 | -$1,611 | -$1,117 |
| $921 (-2%) | -$1,475 | -$415 | +$770 | +$1,701 |
| $939 (0%) โ spot | -$274 | +$877 | +$2,228 | +$3,580 |
| $958 (+2%) | +$843 | +$2,069 | +$3,563 | +$5,459 |
| $986 (+5%) | +$2,356 | +$3,665 | +$5,312 | +$8,277 |
| $1010 (+8%) โ target | +$3,475 | +$4,820 | +$6,529 | +$10,633 |
| $1033 (+10%) | +$4,459 | +$5,813 | +$7,519 | +$10,633 |
| $1080 (+15%) | +$6,075 | +$7,369 | +$8,913 | +$10,633 |
| $1127 (+20%) | +$7,271 | +$8,432 | +$9,690 | +$10,633 |
Uses LLY's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.