Target Price Playground
LLY
$939.47
๐ข
LLY IV: 39.2% โ LOW
(-28.8% vs 30d avg of 55.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $890 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $940 ยท Jul '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $69.3 ยท ฮ -0.45
SHORT PUT ยท $890 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $39.98 ยท ฮ -0.33
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If LLY hits $890 by Jun 19: the diagonal put spread returns +$3,722 (127.0%) on $2,932 risked, vs $-4,947 (-5.3%) for 100 shares on $93,947. Options give 24.0ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if LLY is at $890. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if LLY hits $890 by Jun 19
+$3,722
+127.0% on $2,932 risked
Max Profit
+$3,713
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$2,909
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$960.98
+2.29% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
75%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-11.48 / 7.57 / 36.44
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| LLY Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $752 (-20%) | +$1,709 | +$1,854 | +$1,953 | +$1,816 |
| $799 (-15%) | +$1,544 | +$1,770 | +$2,052 | +$2,039 |
| $846 (-10%) | +$1,250 | +$1,515 | +$1,947 | +$2,639 |
| $890 (-5%) โ target | +$859 | +$1,096 | +$1,525 | +$3,793 |
| $921 (-2%) | +$539 | +$722 | +$1,051 | +$1,945 |
| $939 (0%) โ spot | +$329 | +$469 | +$708 | +$997 |
| $958 (+2%) | +$113 | +$205 | +$342 | +$186 |
| $986 (+5%) | -$216 | -$200 | -$220 | -$789 |
| $1033 (+10%) | -$753 | -$853 | -$1,088 | -$1,868 |
| $1080 (+15%) | -$1,243 | -$1,427 | -$1,772 | -$2,449 |
| $1127 (+20%) | -$1,663 | -$1,890 | -$2,247 | -$2,731 |
Uses LLY's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.