Target Price Playground
LLY
$939.47
๐ข
LLY IV: 39.1% โ LOW
(-29.0% vs 30d avg of 55.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $1030 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $939.47 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $890 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $39.98 ยท ฮ -0.33
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If LLY hits $1030 by Jun 19: the protective put returns +$5,055 (5.2%) on $97,945 risked, vs +$9,053 (9.6%) for 100 shares on $93,947. Options give 0.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if LLY is at $1030. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if LLY hits $1030 by Jun 19
+$5,055
+5.2% on $97,945 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$8,945
Put floors you at $890
Break-even
$979.45
+4.26% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
57%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
66.57 / -42.87 / 152.22
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| LLY Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $752 (-20%) | -$8,443 | -$8,792 | -$9,046 | -$8,945 |
| $799 (-15%) | -$7,287 | -$7,913 | -$8,597 | -$8,945 |
| $846 (-10%) | -$5,562 | -$6,406 | -$7,490 | -$8,945 |
| $893 (-5%) | -$3,231 | -$4,179 | -$5,446 | -$8,695 |
| $921 (-2%) | -$1,552 | -$2,500 | -$3,744 | -$5,877 |
| $939 (0%) โ spot | -$323 | -$1,248 | -$2,429 | -$3,998 |
| $958 (+2%) | +$985 | +$99 | -$988 | -$2,119 |
| $986 (+5%) | +$3,084 | +$2,278 | +$1,364 | +$699 |
| $1030 (+10%) โ target | +$6,606 | +$5,954 | +$5,323 | +$5,055 |
| $1080 (+15%) | +$11,007 | +$10,537 | +$10,176 | +$10,094 |
| $1127 (+20%) | +$15,332 | +$15,009 | +$14,815 | +$14,791 |
Uses LLY's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.