Target Price Playground
LLY
$932.72
๐ข
LLY IV: 38.8% โ LOW
(-29.4% vs 30d avg of 54.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $1010 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $932.72 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $1010 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $37.5 ยท ฮ 0.37
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If LLY hits $1010 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$11,478 (12.8%) on $89,522 risked, vs +$7,728 (8.3%) for 100 shares on $93,272. Options give 1.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if LLY is at $1010. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if LLY hits $1010 by Jun 19
+$11,478
+12.8% on $89,522 risked
Max Profit
+$11,478
If the stock โฅ $1010 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$89,522
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$895.22
-4.02% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
62%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
63.32 / 46.7 / -145.05
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| LLY Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $746 (-20%) | -$15,146 | -$14,973 | -$14,907 | -$14,904 |
| $793 (-15%) | -$10,816 | -$10,464 | -$10,264 | -$10,241 |
| $839 (-10%) | -$6,763 | -$6,165 | -$5,696 | -$5,577 |
| $886 (-5%) | -$3,096 | -$2,218 | -$1,348 | -$914 |
| $914 (-2%) | -$1,115 | -$79 | +$1,058 | +$1,885 |
| $933 (0%) โ spot | +$105 | +$1,234 | +$2,541 | +$3,750 |
| $951 (+2%) | +$1,242 | +$2,451 | +$3,909 | +$5,615 |
| $979 (+5%) | +$2,790 | +$4,091 | +$5,719 | +$8,414 |
| $1010 (+8%) โ target | +$4,269 | +$5,624 | +$7,344 | +$11,478 |
| $1026 (+10%) | +$4,955 | +$6,318 | +$8,044 | +$11,478 |
| $1073 (+15%) | +$6,636 | +$7,955 | +$9,551 | +$11,478 |
| $1119 (+20%) | +$7,893 | +$9,091 | +$10,417 | +$11,478 |
Uses LLY's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.