Target Price Playground
LRCX
$263.66
๐ข
LRCX IV: 59.6% โ LOW
(-32.7% vs 30d avg of 88.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $295 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $265 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $28.28 ยท ฮ 0.56
SHORT CALL ยท $285 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $20.38 ยท ฮ 0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If LRCX hits $295 by Jun 19: the bull call spread returns +$1,211 (153.4%) on $789 risked, vs +$3,134 (11.9%) for 100 shares on $26,366. Options give 12.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if LRCX is at $295. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if LRCX hits $295 by Jun 19
+$1,211
+153.4% on $789 risked
Max Profit
+$1,211
If the stock โฅ $285 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$789
Net debit
Break-even
$272.89
+3.5% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
66%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
10.88 / -0.21 / -0.1
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| LRCX Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $211 (-20%) | -$519 | -$595 | -$709 | -$790 |
| $224 (-15%) | -$408 | -$482 | -$616 | -$790 |
| $237 (-10%) | -$281 | -$343 | -$471 | -$790 |
| $250 (-5%) | -$143 | -$182 | -$277 | -$790 |
| $258 (-2%) | -$58 | -$80 | -$142 | -$790 |
| $264 (0%) โ spot | -$1 | -$11 | -$47 | -$790 |
| $269 (+2%) | +$57 | +$59 | +$49 | -$397 |
| $277 (+5%) | +$142 | +$163 | +$195 | +$394 |
| $290 (+10%) | +$280 | +$331 | +$427 | +$1,210 |
| $295 (+12%) โ target | +$330 | +$392 | +$509 | +$1,210 |
| $303 (+15%) | +$409 | +$487 | +$633 | +$1,210 |
| $316 (+20%) | +$528 | +$625 | +$801 | +$1,210 |
Uses LRCX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.