Target Price Playground
LRCX
$263.66
๐ข
LRCX IV: 59.6% โ LOW
(-32.7% vs 30d avg of 88.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $230 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $265 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $27.44 ยท ฮ -0.44
SHORT PUT ยท $245 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $17.71 ยท ฮ -0.33
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If LRCX hits $230 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$1,028 (105.7%) on $972 risked, vs $-3,366 (-12.8%) for 100 shares on $26,366. Options give 8.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if LRCX is at $230. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if LRCX hits $230 by Jun 19
+$1,028
+105.7% on $972 risked
Max Profit
+$1,028
If the stock โค $245 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$972
Net debit
Break-even
$255.28
-3.18% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
63%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-11.24 / -1.22 / 3.69
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| LRCX Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $211 (-20%) | +$597 | +$674 | +$815 | +$1,027 |
| $224 (-15%) | +$456 | +$517 | +$642 | +$1,027 |
| $230 (-13%) โ target | +$390 | +$439 | +$547 | +$1,027 |
| $237 (-10%) | +$305 | +$338 | +$416 | +$1,027 |
| $250 (-5%) | +$151 | +$151 | +$160 | +$479 |
| $258 (-2%) | +$59 | +$39 | +$3 | -$312 |
| $264 (0%) โ spot | -$1 | -$34 | -$98 | -$839 |
| $269 (+2%) | -$59 | -$105 | -$196 | -$973 |
| $277 (+5%) | -$144 | -$208 | -$332 | -$973 |
| $290 (+10%) | -$276 | -$363 | -$527 | -$973 |
| $303 (+15%) | -$394 | -$497 | -$676 | -$973 |
| $316 (+20%) | -$498 | -$608 | -$784 | -$973 |
Uses LRCX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.