Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If LRCX hits $275 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$1,771 (7.8%) on $-1,771 credit (max loss $22,729), vs +$1,134 (4.3%) for 100 shares on $26,366. Options give 1.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if LRCX is at $275. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| LRCX Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $211 (-20%) | -$2,563 | -$2,252 | -$1,895 | -$1,636 |
| $224 (-15%) | -$1,757 | -$1,383 | -$910 | -$318 |
| $237 (-10%) | -$1,065 | -$649 | -$102 | +$1,000 |
| $250 (-5%) | -$482 | -$49 | +$523 | +$1,771 |
| $258 (-2%) | -$182 | +$251 | +$814 | +$1,771 |
| $264 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | +$428 | +$976 | +$1,771 |
| $269 (+2%) | +$167 | +$587 | +$1,116 | +$1,771 |
| $275 (+4%) โ target | +$342 | +$751 | +$1,250 | +$1,771 |
| $290 (+10%) | +$707 | +$1,076 | +$1,487 | +$1,771 |
| $303 (+15%) | +$956 | +$1,282 | +$1,611 | +$1,771 |
| $316 (+20%) | +$1,151 | +$1,432 | +$1,684 | +$1,771 |