Target Price Playground
LRCX
$263.66
๐ข
LRCX IV: 59.6% โ LOW
(-32.7% vs 30d avg of 88.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $230 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $265 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $27.44 ยท ฮ -0.44
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If LRCX hits $230 by Jun 19: the long put returns +$756 (27.6%) on $2,744 risked, vs $-3,366 (-12.8%) for 100 shares on $26,366. Options give 2.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if LRCX is at $230. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if LRCX hits $230 by Jun 19
+$756
+27.6% on $2,744 risked
Max Profit
+$23,756
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$2,744
Premium paid
Break-even
$237.56
-9.9% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
63%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-44.24 / -18.89 / 44.59
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| LRCX Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $211 (-20%) | +$3,159 | +$2,926 | +$2,710 | +$2,663 |
| $224 (-15%) | +$2,213 | +$1,899 | +$1,553 | +$1,345 |
| $230 (-13%) โ target | +$1,823 | +$1,477 | +$1,073 | +$756 |
| $237 (-10%) | +$1,370 | +$988 | +$518 | +$27 |
| $250 (-5%) | +$633 | +$200 | -$364 | -$1,292 |
| $258 (-2%) | +$241 | -$212 | -$811 | -$2,083 |
| $264 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | -$462 | -$1,075 | -$2,610 |
| $269 (+2%) | -$226 | -$693 | -$1,312 | -$2,744 |
| $277 (+5%) | -$536 | -$1,005 | -$1,619 | -$2,744 |
| $290 (+10%) | -$982 | -$1,439 | -$2,014 | -$2,744 |
| $303 (+15%) | -$1,350 | -$1,779 | -$2,287 | -$2,744 |
| $316 (+20%) | -$1,648 | -$2,040 | -$2,468 | -$2,744 |
Uses LRCX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.