Target Price Playground
LRCX
$263.66
๐ข
LRCX IV: 59.6% โ LOW
(-32.7% vs 30d avg of 88.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $295 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy shares and hold. Unlimited upside, full downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $263.66 ยท ฮ 1.00
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Stock
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If LRCX hits $295 by Jun 19: the long stock returns +$3,134 (11.9%) on $26,366 risked, vs $ (None%) for 100 shares on $.
๐ Expiry
Stock-only position โ no expiry. Target date is Jun 19.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if LRCX hits $295 by Jun 19
+$3,134
+11.9% on $26,366 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$26,366
If stock โ $0
Break-even
$263.66
+0.0% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
66%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
100.0 / 0.0 / 0.0
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| LRCX Price | Today | May 13 | Jun 12 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $211 (-20%) | -$5,273 | -$5,273 | -$5,273 |
| $224 (-15%) | -$3,955 | -$3,955 | -$3,955 |
| $237 (-10%) | -$2,637 | -$2,637 | -$2,637 |
| $250 (-5%) | -$1,318 | -$1,318 | -$1,318 |
| $258 (-2%) | -$527 | -$527 | -$527 |
| $264 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$0 | +$0 |
| $269 (+2%) | +$527 | +$527 | +$527 |
| $277 (+5%) | +$1,318 | +$1,318 | +$1,318 |
| $290 (+10%) | +$2,637 | +$2,637 | +$2,637 |
| $295 (+12%) โ target | +$3,134 | +$3,134 | +$3,134 |
| $303 (+15%) | +$3,955 | +$3,955 | +$3,955 |
| $316 (+20%) | +$5,273 | +$5,273 | +$5,273 |
Uses LRCX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.