Target Price Playground
LRCX
$263.66
๐ข
LRCX IV: 59.6% โ LOW
(-32.7% vs 30d avg of 88.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $290 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $263.66 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $250 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $21.53 ยท ฮ -0.36
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If LRCX hits $290 by Jun 19: the protective put returns +$481 (1.7%) on $28,519 risked, vs +$2,634 (10.0%) for 100 shares on $26,366. Options give 0.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if LRCX is at $290. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if LRCX hits $290 by Jun 19
+$481
+1.7% on $28,519 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$3,519
Put floors you at $250
Break-even
$285.19
+8.17% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
71%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
63.79 / -19.79 / 42.78
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| LRCX Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $211 (-20%) | -$2,716 | -$3,009 | -$3,331 | -$3,519 |
| $224 (-15%) | -$2,242 | -$2,604 | -$3,049 | -$3,519 |
| $237 (-10%) | -$1,655 | -$2,067 | -$2,604 | -$3,519 |
| $250 (-5%) | -$959 | -$1,397 | -$1,977 | -$3,471 |
| $258 (-2%) | -$491 | -$934 | -$1,517 | -$2,680 |
| $264 (0%) โ spot | -$161 | -$602 | -$1,177 | -$2,153 |
| $269 (+2%) | +$185 | -$252 | -$812 | -$1,626 |
| $277 (+5%) | +$730 | +$305 | -$223 | -$835 |
| $290 (+10%) โ target | +$1,700 | +$1,306 | +$850 | +$481 |
| $303 (+15%) | +$2,743 | +$2,390 | +$2,016 | +$1,802 |
| $316 (+20%) | +$3,842 | +$3,533 | +$3,240 | +$3,120 |
Uses LRCX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.