Target Price Playground
LRCX
$263.66
๐ข
LRCX IV: 59.6% โ LOW
(-32.7% vs 30d avg of 88.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $305 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $265 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $28.28 ยท ฮ 0.56
LONG PUT ยท $265 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $27.44 ยท ฮ -0.44
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If LRCX hits $305 by Jun 19: the long straddle returns $-1,572 (-28.2%) on $5,572 risked, vs +$4,134 (15.7%) for 100 shares on $26,366. Options give 1.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if LRCX is at $305. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if LRCX hits $305 by Jun 19
$-1,572
-28.2% on $5,572 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$5,572
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$209.28
-20.62% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
56%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
11.53 / -41.02 / 89.19
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| LRCX Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $211 (-20%) | +$1,046 | +$508 | +$3 | -$165 |
| $224 (-15%) | +$470 | -$228 | -$993 | -$1,483 |
| $237 (-10%) | +$103 | -$733 | -$1,744 | -$2,801 |
| $250 (-5%) | -$52 | -$990 | -$2,188 | -$4,120 |
| $258 (-2%) | -$45 | -$1,023 | -$2,292 | -$4,911 |
| $264 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | -$996 | -$2,292 | -$5,438 |
| $269 (+2%) | +$76 | -$930 | -$2,239 | -$5,179 |
| $277 (+5%) | +$247 | -$763 | -$2,062 | -$4,388 |
| $290 (+10%) | +$672 | -$312 | -$1,534 | -$3,069 |
| $305 (+16%) โ target | +$1,346 | +$425 | -$642 | -$1,572 |
| $316 (+20%) | +$1,976 | +$1,122 | +$195 | -$433 |
Uses LRCX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.