Target Price Playground
LRCX
$263.66
๐ข
LRCX IV: 59.6% โ LOW
(-32.7% vs 30d avg of 88.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $285 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $263.66 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $285 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $20.38 ยท ฮ 0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If LRCX hits $285 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$4,172 (17.2%) on $24,328 risked, vs +$2,134 (8.1%) for 100 shares on $26,366. Options give 2.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if LRCX is at $285. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if LRCX hits $285 by Jun 19
+$4,172
+17.2% on $24,328 risked
Max Profit
+$4,172
If the stock โฅ $285 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$24,328
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$243.28
-7.73% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
76%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
55.11 / 21.92 / -44.7
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| LRCX Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $211 (-20%) | -$3,678 | -$3,450 | -$3,276 | -$3,235 |
| $224 (-15%) | -$2,620 | -$2,310 | -$2,026 | -$1,917 |
| $237 (-10%) | -$1,651 | -$1,259 | -$846 | -$599 |
| $250 (-5%) | -$776 | -$311 | +$230 | +$720 |
| $258 (-2%) | -$299 | +$204 | +$812 | +$1,511 |
| $264 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | +$523 | +$1,170 | +$2,038 |
| $269 (+2%) | +$282 | +$823 | +$1,504 | +$2,565 |
| $277 (+5%) | +$678 | +$1,239 | +$1,957 | +$3,356 |
| $285 (+8%) โ target | +$1,050 | +$1,625 | +$2,363 | +$4,172 |
| $290 (+10%) | +$1,262 | +$1,842 | +$2,585 | +$4,172 |
| $303 (+15%) | +$1,759 | +$2,337 | +$3,063 | +$4,172 |
| $316 (+20%) | +$2,176 | +$2,736 | +$3,412 | +$4,172 |
Uses LRCX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.